Circularity is the new thing in plastics – 'circles', 'loops', 'closed systems'… - anything that moves away from single-use. It’s a laudable goal and companies of all stripes are touting their efforts.
But break down the pledges and the numbers and much of it looks inadequate.
Porous commitments
In the CPG space, the most widely accepted plastic abatement targets come from the Ellen MacArthur Foundation New Plastics Economy Global Commitment, which
calls for all plastic packaging to be “easily and safely reused, recycled, or composted by 2025.”
But these three options are not at all equal. Creating at industrial scale plastics that are food safe, robust, economic, meet supplier standards and are compostable is a substantial challenge. Instead, focus will be on the ‘recyclable’ option. This simply means the plastic
could be recycled. If plastics users can point to processes and technologies that enable current packaging to be recycled, this condition is met even if it isn’t recycled.
Recycling capacity is already lacking and as more post-consumer use recyclable plastic arrives, it’s clear much or most will end in landfill or the oceans.
Signatories to the New Plastics Economy also have targets for the percentage of recycled plastic in all plastic packaging by 2025, but this number isn’t high. It’s typically 25% but the range amongst companies is wide.
For the 19 large (above US$10 billion in annual revenues) packaged goods companies profiled in the "NEW PLASTICS ECONOMY GLOBAL COMMITMENT SPRING 2019 REPORT”, March 2019, six have set a 25% recycled plastic target for 2025, one (Diageo) a 40% target, and two (SC Johnson and Nestlé) a 15% target. Seven have yet to set a target, and Coca-Cola has set a 50% target, but for 2030.
According to our calculations, these moderate targets largely ensure demand for virgin plastic will continue to rise.
Demand for virgin PET likely to increase
Even allowing for the efforts to reduce the amount of PET used in each container, forecasts suggest that global PET demand is set to grow around 4%-5% pa.
Assuming growth at the lowest end of that range and that the global industry manages to 30% recycled PET by 2030, demand for virgin PET will still be around 20% higher in 2030 than today.
At these growth rates, demand for virgin plastic only starts to fall around 50% recycled PET.
Looked at another way, from 2019 to 2030, we’re set for over 400 million tonnes of PET that will
not be recycled and that will end up in landfill, incinerators or the oceans.
Even with the New Plastic Economy commitments, we remain far from a circular economy.
Limitations of the ‘circular’ economy commitments
In our view, terms used in the plastic debate are too imprecise. Specifically, we’re missing a word to describe recycling to a comparable use, so recycling a food-use PET bottle to another food-use PET bottle. Too often ‘recycling’ means a lower grade use and PET bottles are reborn as benches, other plastic furniture or plastic bricks.
Double-use plastic is better than single-use, but it’s in no way circular and this downcycling doesn’t deserve to be called ‘recycling’. What we need is closed-loop recycling and the moves so far are very distant from delivering this.
[Image Credit: © Business360]