Plastics recycling has been set back by coronavirus, but we see reason for hope through more radical change longer-term.
Coronavirus arrived at a time when plastics recycling was already deeply struggling and arguably broken. China’s 2018 National Sword policy that ended its role as mass importer of the world’s plastic waste meant a glut of used plastic in the West that had insufficient recycling capacity.
Low oil prices have meant that in recent years the cost of virgin plastic is competitive and often lower than recycled plastic. The current Russia-Saudi-Arabia oil price war collapsed oil prices further and means that for the foreseeable future recycled plastic will not be cost competitive.
While the oil price may eventually increase, the emergence of carbon taxes and rise of electric vehicles will prevent a sharp increase, meaning recycled plastic could remain uneconomic for years.
In the UK, it is only the value of a tradeable credit for plastic that has been recycled (the Packing Recycling Note) that keeps the recycling industry afloat. It’s currently about £250/tonne and Simon Ellin, CEO of The Recycling Association,
says that if it wasn’t for the PRN, “…UK plastics would be in negative pricing”.
A compounding factor for recyclers is ongoing efforts by plastic users to reduce plastic usage with thinner packaging, so called ‘lightweighting’. This lowers their plastic footprint but makes recycling less economic since processors only get ever thinner plastics to process.
It was in this context that coronavirus hit. Plastics, along with other environmental concerns, have been deprioritized as people and organizations focus on combating the virus.
Recycling has been suspended in many jurisdictions worldwide. For example, TerraCycle says that all its 100,000 collection points at retailers around the world are currently closed.
Moreover, there’s been a sharp uptick in plastics waste that has been used where coronavirus is present. Biohazardous waste from Covid-19 medical facilities or coronavirus test sites require special treatment and is taking time and resource from traditional recycling processing.
The
net result of all this is that much of the waste stream that would ordinarily go for recycling processing is now largely going to landfills and incinerators, which means processors are not getting sufficient plastic to meet demand for recycled plastic.
Reduced supply is expected to endure for quarters and perhaps years and will limit the ability of manufacturers to meet their recycled content obligations. In the UK, recycled content was expected rise to 30% in 2025 but
Simon Ellin believes the downturn in supply of recycled plastic will make it difficult for manufacturers to meet the target. It could also imperil the less stringent but global New Plastic Economy targets of 25% recycled content by 2025.
Taken together, these factors mean the future for plastics recycling looks bleak. It did not have a viable business model before coronavirus, and now it looks even worse.
But there is another way to cast this.
First, some believe environmental concerns will come to the fore, including a push toward circularity. Lockdowns have caused surprisingly quick and profound gains in environmental quality (air purity, reduced noise pollution etc.). Commentators believe people will be more motivated to push for change now they know how easy positive results can be attained.
New codes of behavior, such as distancing requirements on public transport, is encouraging investment in bike paths and other infrastructure that would have seemed infeasible just months ago.
As part of this wholesale reassessment and realignment of public investment, ongoing failure of plastic recycling will become very clear. Rather than invest in additional recycling capacity, a better solution would be to push for plastic taxes (governments will be needing the cash) and, instead, end mass recycling as a solution and aim for the truly circular solutions of biodegradability and/or reuse and refill.
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